One Solution Can Fix Our Two Biggest Problems October 12, 2008
Posted by Zack in California | 2 comments
That’s the subtitle to Van Jone’s new book, The Green Collar Economy.
This is a really important book. The point is that we need to completely rebuild our economy or the planet is toast. We also have a situation in which our economy has lost it’s purpose. Most Americans are now employed making junk or providing junk services that no one *really* needs. The bottom just dropped out of this junk economy. So what are we going to do with ourselves now? Expect to see massive layoffs and company failures over the next decade. How do we get our society back to work? One way is to mobilize for a great transformation of our polluting economy to a green economy. If we start now, we’ll find that we can trade the technologies that we develop and perfect with the rest of the world, providing ourselves with a new niche in the global economy (because investment banking just got old).
Live blogging Saddleback forum 7 August 16, 2008
Posted by Zack in California | 7 comments“The Vietnamese guard drew a cross in the dirt, and for a moment we were just two Christians worshiping together.”
OK. I guess McCain has some powerful ways of bonding with these folks too. That is a reference to the secret means of identification among early Christians under the Roman empire of drawing the symbol of a fish in the dirt (same as the one you see on the back of all those minivans).
…And then:
Warren: “Does evil exist? And if it does, should we negotiate with it, struggle with it, or defeat it?”
McCain: “Defeat it.”
Obama’s answer to the same question was meandering and unmemorable.
And just now on education. McCain, “…And find bad teachers another line of work.”
He’s just doing so good. Maybe, at least, this strong performance is coming early enough that Obama & his debate prep-ers will snap into better shape fast.
Live blogging Saddleback forum 6 August 16, 2008
Posted by Zack in California | write a commentWow. McCain is doing really well. He’s so relaxed and natural. What’s going on? He was supposed to be old and spent and out of touch. But he’s being so much more engaging than Obama was. I think… Right?
He’s even making jokes about how we have to imitate the French on energy policy.
OOOOH — and he’s getting a chance to tell that story about how he refused to leave the camp early.
“It took a lot of prayer. A LOT of prayer,” he said.
Tags: barack obama, John McCain, Rick WarrenLive blogging Saddleback forum 5 August 16, 2008
Posted by Zack in California | 4 commentsOK - I take back some of my initial over-enthusiasm for Obama’s performance. I think he did not meet the high expectations of evangelical leaders who are secretly plugging for him. Too many of his answers were vague. He just didn’t seem fully prepared. On a lot of those questions, he had wide open doors. He could have nailed them. But he just kind of went around in circles. A little John Kerryesque, I fear to say.
Tags: barack obama, John McCain, Rick WarrenLive blogging Saddleback forum 4 August 16, 2008
Posted by Zack in California | write a commentMake sure you watch the forum on C-SPAN, not Fox. Then you get to watch the super hip Saddleback band that comes on during the breaks.
That was sarcasm. This church was formed in the 80’s. So this is a boomer-based megachurch.
Tags: barack obama, John McCain, Rick WarrenLive blogging Saddleback forum 3 August 16, 2008
Posted by Zack in California | 1 commentOK. I think Obama actually really blew the abortion answer. Warren teed it right up for him. Obama should have strongly supported a woman’s right to choose (his position) while coming out very strong for “life.” But he just kind of mumbled on that one.
I know that several evangelical leaders recently gave his staff plenty of preparation for how to win the hearts of evangelicals on “life” while sticking with his support for Roe V. Wade, specifically for this Saddleback event. Maybe those staffers do not have direct access to Barack for debate prep? Barack would have benefited from a heavy dose of their direct involvement in his prep.
Tags: barack obama, John McCain, Rick WarrenLive blogging Saddleback forum 2 August 16, 2008
Posted by Zack in California | 1 commentNotice the applause when Barack said he was against an amendment against gay marriage?
Oh — and just were a lot more applause for civil rights for gays.
Of course, as expected, there were also applause for Barack’s anti-gay marriage answer, “marriage is between a man and a woman.”
Live blogging Saddleback forum 1 August 16, 2008
Posted by Zack in California | 5 commentsObama is absolutely going to kill McCain in this Saddleback forum. He already has just in the first few minutes. He just threw out a phrase made popular by Rick Warren’s purpose driven life, “It’s not about me.” He did it naturally, just like he was on exactly the same wavelength as this mass of white suburban evangelicals who have ALL read Warren’s book.
In other words, he is culturally bonding with these folks easily and naturally just like Bush did.
In his campaign, McCain has already made clear that he has no idea who these people are. I’ve heard about a number of conservative evangelical leaders—even those who have endorsed McCain—who can not even get their calls returned by McCain campaign staffers let alone McCain himself. Meanwhile, Obama has met and spoken with many of the same leaders—yes, even those who have endorsed McCain. Obama staffers are actively seeking input from key evangelical leaders including those who have not endorsed.
OK — we’ll wait to see how McCain fares.
By the way. There has been a little criticism of this event. Why should we have to watch a church-sponsored debate? Why should it be televised? But this is a normal thing. In this campaign we will also be watching events sponsored by African-American groups, Latino groups, young people’s groups, etc… Warren is a leader of a large constituency. Some research says there are 100 million born again Christians in America. Why not let them have their event with the candidates?
Tags: barack obama, John McCain, Rick WarrenAn Interview with George Barna February 13, 2008
Posted by Zack in California | 1 commentI’ve cited the work of the Barna Group here often — sometimes describing George Barna as “The Christians’ Stan Greenberg.” His company does high level research and polling for Christian organizations as well as corporations. George Barna himself has been swept up in the Revolution among Born Again Christians. His book “Revolution” is both an academic study of the revolution as well as an embrace of it. It’s brought him some criticism from the mainstream church, but has planted him firmly at the forefront of Christianity in America.
In your latest research project, you report that 2/5th of registered Democrats are Born Again Christians. I think this will surprise a lot of people. Before we get into that, can you explain how that category is defined? Who are born again Christians? And what’s the difference between Evangelical and Born Again Christians?
The Barna Group is the only survey research organization I know of that does not rely upon self-report to be classified as “born again” or “evangelical.” We classify people as “born again” based on their answers to two questions about what they believe, rather than the label they choose for themselves. The questions are whether they have made a personal commitment to Jesus Christ that is still important in their life today, and if so, we ask what they think will happen to them after they die. We offer seven possibilities to choose from, one of which is that they believe they will go to Heaven because they have confessed their sins and have accepted Jesus Christ as their savior.
We do not rely upon people calling themselves born again because we did some research on the people who choose such a label and found two interesting results. First, about one-third of those who call themselves born again also admit that they have no kind of relationship with Jesus Christ, which the Bible describes as being a central facet of becoming a person who is born anew – transformed by the grace of God into a new being. Second, we also learned that roughly one-quarter of the people who meet the two theological criteria we pose – regarding the personal commitment as well as the confession of sins and reliance upon Christ for forgiveness – appear to be born again but refuse to adopt that label for themselves. The major reason is that it carries such negative cultural connotations.
Evangelicals, in our way of measuring things, are a subset of born again Christians. The term “evangelical” is not in the Bible, so to figure out what this man-made category meant, we studied the belief statement of the National Association of Evangelicals and drew out seven particular elements that seemed most central to their perspective. Those include the accuracy and reliability of the Bible, the sinless life of Christ, the existence of Satan as an influential spiritual being, the importance of sharing one’s faith in Christ with others, that a person cannot earn their way into Heaven, religious faith is very important in the person’s life, and that God is the omnipotent and omniscient creator and ruler of the universe. The NAE has more components in their statement, but these seemed pivotal, and would give us a good grip on where a person was coming from, theologically.
So, using this approach, it is possible to be evangelical and born again, possible to be born again without being evangelical, but impossible to be evangelical without being born again. But I have to note that only God knows who is or is not truly born again. Surveys simply provide an estimate of what’s happening in people’s lives.
So - what percent of America is Born Again or Evangelical?
About 44% are born again, and about 7% are evangelical.
Has the number of Born Again + Evangelical Christians grown dramatically over recent decades or has it always been this way?
The proportion of evangelicals has remained constant for the past 20 years that we’ve been measuring it. The percentage of born again Christians has risen and fallen to some extent, but it generally hovers within a few percentage points of the 40% mark.
OK - so born again Christians believe that Jesus walked on water, healed the sick and rose from the dead; they mostly believe Adam, Eve, Noah and Satan are real. They believe prayer works. In the current DC conventional wisdom, those kinds of beliefs are associated with right wing stands on economics, law & order, foreign policy, social welfare and other policy areas. Is the DC conventional wisdom wrong?
In this case, it is wrong. There is a wide spectrum of beliefs within the born again constituency. There are segments on both sides of the arguments related to immigration reform, responses to poverty, the Iraq war, and so forth. Much of this relates to the worldview of factions within the born again community. Some, especially younger born agains, tend to have a postmodern view of the world, which leads them to conclude that there are no absolute moral truths, that relationships and dialogue are of the ultimate importance, and that tolerance of diverse opinions and lifestyles is appropriate.
As you alluded to earlier, our research shows that a plurality of born again adults who are registered to vote are Democrats. Among the born agains, more than four out of 10 are registered Democrats, three out of ten are registered Republicans, and the remaining two out of 10 are independent. Things look very different among the evangelicals, though, where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats almost three-to-one. Maybe the insight to draw from all of this is that the mainstream media constantly try to simplify complex realities so that people can quickly understand the world. The problem is that some things get oversimplified, and understanding the faith community is one of those dimensions that gets misunderstood.
Given the drum beat by so many high profile Christian leaders around anti-gay marriage and anti-abortion campaigns, what does it say that those issues are so far down the list for most born again Christians? Aren’t they listening to their leaders? Or is it that those people we see on TV are not actually regarded as leaders by most born agains?
There are several dimensions to consider in this. First, there is an important distinction to be made between someone being a leader and a teacher. Some of the people who have the media platforms have their greatest influence as teachers of biblical principles rather than as sociopolitical leaders. Second, every issue I have ever studied – and I’ve been involved in political research for more than 30 years – suffers from constituency burnout at some point. Remember, Americans live in a fast-paced, immediate gratification culture, anchored by the postmodern view that moral values are situational rather absolute. Consequently, while many born again Christians are personally pro-life, they have lost some of the energy to fight that battle, and now say they are personally pro-life but are more galvanized by other issues and concerns. Third, the fact that many born again voters rank abortion and gay rights lower on their agenda does not so much indicate that those issues are unimportant to them as it reflects the increasing sophistication of many born again voters. They have morphed from single-issue voters to being more educated about a wider variety of national and global concerns. In that context, they may see other matters as possessing more immediate significance for our nation. Finally, realize that the younger generation of born again Christians tends to be less drawn to the “culture wars” and more drawn toward conversation and reconciliation. For better or worse, many of them express an interest in influencing the culture through their relationships and lifestyle choices rather than through political engagement.
Perhaps that biggest, last point of division between born again progressives and…er…born once progressives is homosexuality. I have met a number of born again Christians who believe in “gay rights” — i.e. that gays should have the same rights as everyone else — even while they believe that homosexuality is un-biblical and a sin. To most people reading this, that will seem a huge contradiction — can you shed any light on what Christians like that are thinking.
This is a great example of the “new” thinking that is gaining ground among Christians. While it is true that you can legislate morality – after all, what laws do is define what is right and wrong, which is the essence of morality – a growing number of born again people are not staking their entire realm of influence on the legal and political systems. Instead, they desire to offer a theologically honest but emotionally compassionate reaction to proponents of homosexuality. In other words, they cannot ignore the fact that homosexuality is a sin from a biblical perspective, but also realize that Jesus’ primary exhortation was to love other people into a different way of understanding and living their lives. So, on the one hand, you’ll find some born again adults who strongly reject homosexuality as a valid lifestyle, who at the same time have a number of homosexual friends and are comfortable discussing that lifestyle with those friends in a non-hysterical, non-hostile manner. Their view is that God, alone, is called to judge people. We’re simply called to love them.
Tags: Democrats, George Barna, homosexuality, RepublicansBarna: Born Again Voters No Longer Favor Republican Candidates February 1, 2008
Posted by Zack in California | 2 commentsAnother fascinating report from Barna. I can’t find it on their site yet - so I’ll just post the release here:
Tags: 2008, barna, GOPBorn Again Voters No Longer Favor Republican Candidates
(Ventura, CA) One of the most reliable constituencies of the Republican Party in recent years has been born again Christians. A new national survey of likely voters conducted by The Barna Group, however, shows that the Republicans have lost the allegiance of many born again voters. The November election is truly up for grabs – and if the election were held today, most born again voters would select the Democratic Party nominee for president, whoever that might be.
Born Again Voting Pattern
In 1992, born again voters sided with Republican incumbent George H.W. Bush over Democratic challenger Bill Clinton by a 39% to 35% margin. In the 1996 election, born again voters again sided with the Republican candidate (Bob Dole) rather than the incumbent Democratic President Bill Clinton by a 49% to 43% margin. In the 2000 election, the born again constituency gave Republican nominee George W. Bush a resounding 57% to 42% margin over Democratic challenger Al Gore. In 2004, the born again segment again sided with George W. Bush, giving him a lopsided 62% to 38% preference over Democratic hopeful John Kerry.
In the past couple of elections, the born again vote represented about half of the total number of votes cast in the U.S. Given the razor thin margin of victory achieved by President Bush in 2000, and the close tally in 2004, the born again vote was vital in both of the Bush victories.
Born Again Voters in the 2008 Election
Compared to recent presidential elections, the current leanings of the born again constituency have reversed. The new Barna study shows that if the election were to be held today, 40% of all born again adults who are likely to vote in November would choose the Democratic candidate and just 29% would choose the Republican candidate. The remaining 28% are currently not sure whom they would choose, preferring to make their selection on the basis of the candidate than strictly on the basis of his or her party affiliation.
George Barna, whose firm conducted the national survey, indicated that Republicans have an uphill climb with the born again voters. “Given the large percentage of undecided voters, it is possible that the Republican candidate might eventually win a majority of the born again vote,” he explained. “However, it will not be easy to win them over. Several factors are operating against the Republican’s prospects in this election, related to both social issues and the personal integrity of several of the candidates.”
If the election were held today, and all of the remaining candidates from both parties were on the ballot, the frontrunners among born again voters would be Hillary Clinton (favored by 20% of born again likely voters), Barack Obama (18%) and Mike Huckabee (12%). No other candidate reached double figures. Thirty percent of the born again likely voters said they were still undecided as to who they would choose.
Evangelicals Remain Strongly Conservative Republican
A subset of the born again population – evangelicals – has remained firmly committed to conservative ideals and, to a lesser extent, to the Republican Party. Across the nation, 43% of registered voters are aligned with the Democratic Party and 24% are registered as Republicans. Among evangelicals, though, 56% are registered Republicans and just 22% are Democrats.
Ideological leanings reflect a similar disparity. Among all voters, half say they are somewhere in the middle of the ideological spectrum on most issues, with 29% describing themselves as mostly conservative and just 14% claiming to be mostly liberal. Yet, among evangelicals, three out of every four (72%) describe themselves as mostly conservative and a mere 2% say they are mostly liberal. Just one out of four evangelicals (24%) says they are in the ideological middle ground.
If the election were held today, only 45% of evangelicals say they would support the Republican nominee for president, and 11% would support the Democratic representative. Most significant is that a whopping 40% of evangelicals are undecided. This is extraordinary, given that 62% of evangelicals voted for the Republican candidate in 1992, 67% did so in 1996, along with 67% in 2000 and 85% in 2004.
“Evangelicals are clearly sending a message to Republican leaders this time around,” commented Barna, a former campaign manager whose firm has conducted surveys for candidates in two presidential elections. “There is tremendous frustration among evangelical voters, in particular. Overall, 90% of them say they are interested in the presidential election, making them among the voter segments most interested in the race. Further, 98% of them say they are concerned about the moral condition of the country and 82% say they uncomfortable with the way things are going in the world. Yet, given the stands of some of the leading Republican contenders, evangelicals are registering their discomfort with the choices they have at hand.”
The Mormon Question
The Barna study also explored the opinions of people related to the Mormon faith of Republican candidate Mitt Romney.
Overall, the study revealed that more than one-quarter of the population (27%) contends that Mormons are not Christians. That sentiment was especially common among evangelical Christians (57%). Other groups that had above-average numbers who reject Mormons as Christians included all born again Christians (37%), political conservatives (32%), and people under the age of 40 (36%).
“While Mr. Romney has tried hard to diffuse concerns about his Mormon faith,” noted Barna, “the reality is that large segments of the population do not accept the notion that Mormons are Christian. While that would not be a central factor in most people’s voting decision, it would be a sufficiently significant factor in the minds of millions of voters to affect the race if he proves to be the Republican nominee.”
Values Voters
The media have made a big deal over the so-called “values voters” in this election. Toward that end, The Barna Group study evaluated a group of likely voters who described themselves as being “deeply spiritual” and “concerned about the moral condition of the United States.” That segment represents 35% of the electorate.
This group proved to be somewhat more conservative in its political views (42% are “mostly conservative”) and slightly more inclined than the national population to be registered as Republican (35% Republican, 44% Democrat). However, these “values voters” are only slightly more inclined to select a Republican candidate (27%) than is true nationally (24%). In fact, the “values voters” are currently less inclined to select the Republican nominee than are born again (29%) or evangelical voters (45%).
Thoughts on the Election Season
The November election will be a study in contrasts, according to Barna. “As in recent elections, a key to victory in November will be the faith vote. Unlike the past couple of presidential races, though, the born again and evangelical vote is up for grabs. In recent elections, the faith vote sided with the Republican candidate early in the race, allowing those candidates to focus on winning over swing votes. In this year’s contest, however, the faith vote cannot be taken for granted. Much can change between now and November, but Republican candidates have a tough road ahead of them this year.”
Barna also indicated that the nature of voters driven by their faith has shifted in the past decade. “Today we have a greater proportion of faith-driven voters who are concerned about issues that are often thought of as ‘liberal’ social policy concerns, such as poverty and health care. Abortion and family protection remain significant issues to the faith constituency, but they are not the only issues that matter to the group – or even the driving issues. Relying upon traditional stereotypes of born again or evangelical voters will not serve candidates well this year.”
About the Research
This report is based upon nationwide telephone surveys conducted by The Barna Group with random samples of adults, age 18 and older. These surveys were conducted in January 2008 among 1006 adults randomly selected from across the continental United States. The survey included 649 registered voters who were deemed to be likely to vote in this year’s general election on the basis of their past voting behavior and their inclinations to vote this year. The maximum margin of sampling error associated with the aggregate sample is ±3.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The maximum margin of sampling error associated with the sub-sample of likely voters is ±4.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. Statistical weighting was used to calibrate the sample to known population percentages in relation to demographic variables.
“Born again Christians” are defined as people who said they have made a personal commitment to Jesus Christ that is still important in their life today and who also indicated they believe that when they die they will go to Heaven because they had confessed their sins and had accepted Jesus Christ as their savior. Respondents are not asked to describe themselves as “born again.”
“Evangelicals” meet the born again criteria (described above) plus seven other conditions. Those include saying their faith is very important in their life today; believing they have a personal responsibility to share their religious beliefs about Christ with non-Christians; believing that Satan exists; believing that eternal salvation is possible only through grace, not works; believing that Jesus Christ lived a sinless life on earth; asserting that the Bible is accurate in all that it teaches; and describing God as the all-knowing, all-powerful, perfect deity who created the universe and still rules it today. Being classified as an evangelical is not dependent upon church attendance or the denominational affiliation of the church attended. Respondents were not asked to describe themselves as “evangelical.”
The Barna Group, Ltd. (which includes its research division, The Barna Research Group) conducts primary research, produces media resources pertaining to spiritual development, and facilitates the healthy spiritual growth of leaders, children, families and Christian ministries. Located in Ventura, California, Barna has been conducting and analyzing primary research to understand cultural trends related to values, beliefs, attitudes and behaviors since 1984. If you would like to receive free e-mail notification of the release of each new, bi-monthly update on the latest research findings from The Barna Group, you may subscribe to this free service at the Barna website (www.barna.org).
© The Barna Group, Ltd, 2008.
